A group of Thai industry leaders anticipates that the planned US reciprocal tariffs will reduce Thailand's GDP growth by 0.2 to 0.6 percentage points in 2025, keeping the forecast within the existing range of 2.4% to 2.9%.

Speaking following the Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking (JSCCIB) meeting on 2nd April, 2025, Tawee Piyawatana, Vice-Chairman of the Federation of Thai Industries, stated that the organisation was awaiting the official announcement of US measures, expected on 2nd April.

The private sector is working with relevant government agencies to prepare for potential uncertainties, he said.

"Initial estimates indicate that the US reciprocal tariffs will lower Thailand's GDP growth by 0.2 to 0.6 percentage points from previous assessments. The actual impact will continue to be monitored, and the growth forecast will be adjusted accordingly, given the softer economic outlook and prevailing uncertainties," said Tawee.

Thailand is considered a country at risk due to significant tariff differentials and its trade surplus with the US's export-driven industries. Sectors such as electronics, automotive and auto parts, and petrochemicals are particularly vulnerable to heightened risks under the new US tariffs.

Additionally, indirect effects may arise from key trade partners, particularly China, in industries with strong supply chain connections to US markets. An influx of Chinese goods into Thailand may also increase, along with a potential rise in US exports to Thailand following trade negotiations, according to JSCCIB.